Please find below June 2025 net return update.
9 July was the deadline set by Trump on tariffs. As of today, we have turned off most of our strategies and closed some open trades for a small loss.
The reason for turning off our strategies is the normal large new events re non-farm payrolls, service reports, retail sales etc. are being released over the coming days. But with the combination of the tariff news shortly after, it could cause sizable moves in the market and trading will be around understand what the tariff news means.
We have noticed already liquidity drying up in the market waiting for the news events to occur. Therefore, the decision was made to stop trading then take on this level of trading risk. But what is more disturbing is how quite it has been on the news front regarding the upcoming tariff deadline. Early in the year it was like every hour an update. But the 9 July is just creeping up with limited news. Not sure what this means.
During June we have begun to role out a new bot that only trades AUDCAD on MT5. We have been testing and running it for over 12 months, and it has been loaded onto both Quobba MT5 strategies. This bot looks for 5 possible entry options and will open a trade if met. Note it will also close trades in a loss position if the market has changed and no longer supports the original trade analysis. We installed it at different times on the Quobba SR and HR and you can see SR incurred small loss whilst the HR had a good return due to installation difference.
During July we will also be rolling out another new bot which trades NZDCAD and AUDCAD. It is based around fibonacci retracement levels (best to google so you can understand it). As with all our bots we work around probabilities and history to determine entry points. This will be installed on MT4 and MT5 strategies and will work in conjunction with other bots on the same strategy. We might even setup a new strategy that has only the two new bots.
For June the large new event was attacks by Israel and US on Iran. It came and was gone within a couple of days and now nothing. Makes me think of the world we now live in that we move on from something so quickly. Assuming this is part of Putin’s plan – keep it boring and the world just moves on as no longer makes the news cycles.
In July we would have normally left our strategies run whilst the important news events occurred, but the tariff deadline puts the risk at an unacceptable level. Like earlier in the year, we will wait to see what happens on 9 July and determine when strategies are turned back on. It is frustrating doing this and of course impacts the number of trading days this month. But as always, we take the long return view over short term returns whilst protecting the capital is our first priority.
Finally, strategy GBR VHR (GBR stands for Great Barrier Reef) hit 50% net returns in 13 months. The current markets have suited this strategy. But note the VHR stands for Very High Risk as it has higher chances of a large draw down and capital risk. But in the past 13 months it traded like a HR strategy but with increased returns. This is why we run different strategies as we cannot determine what the markets will do, but we have different strategies for different markets to pick up the returns.
Any queries, please do not hesitate to reach out.
